Beauty +32%: inside the GWP-adjusted range
Beauty demand spiked to $9.0M (+32%): exactly what six comparable GWP events predict. Suppressed from the queue; evidence attached.
BLM · Beauty · All channels · W28
Why this was suppressed: Why suppressed: the envelope stepped up for the GWP window (6 comparables) and the actual landed inside it. Attention is spent on deviations, not on the plan working.
- Actual
W28 · Demand sales
- Expected range
median $8.8M
- Deviation
z +0.3
- Impact
not priced
BLM · Beauty · All channels ($M), W17 to W28: weekly actual vs event-adjusted expected range
| Week | Actual | Expected lower | Expected median | Expected upper | Z-score | Events | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W17 | 6.83 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W18 | 6.75 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W19 | 6.91 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W20 | 6.68 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W21 | 6.82 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W22 | 6.94 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W23 | 6.76 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W24 | 6.89 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W25 | 6.81 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W26 | 6.95 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W27 | 7.04 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 7.2 | — | — | — |
| W28 | 9 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 10.2 | — | Beauty GWP · $25 off $250 + gift | — |
What explains it
GWP event performing to comparable-event expectation
×1.32 observed vs ×[1.22, 1.30, 1.41] expected from six comparables: the spike is the plan working.
Why the band absorbed it
Six comparable events: how the band learned its uplift
×[1.22, 1.30, 1.41] interval · W28 observed ×1.32, inside. Why suppressed: the envelope stepped up for the GWP window (6 comparables) and the actual landed inside it. Attention is spent on deviations, not on the plan working.
| Event | Window | Uplift |
|---|---|---|
| Beauty GWP · FY25 spring | W28-FY25 | ×1.28 |
| Beauty GWP · FY25 fall | W41-FY25 | ×1.33 |
| Beauty Week · FY25 | W22-FY25 | ×1.24 |
| Beauty GWP · FY24 spring | W27-FY24 | ×1.30 |
| Beauty GWP · FY24 fall | W40-FY24 | ×1.38 |
| Fragrance event · FY24 | W47-FY24 | ×1.26 |