AQUA Intimates return rate drifting up 4 weeks
Return rate has drifted 19.5% → 21.4% over four same-direction weeks; still inside the expected range (+1.9σ), so it's on watch, not in the queue.
BLM · AQUA AQ-1147 · Intimates & Hosiery · W25–W28
On watch: below the leader gate
$85K/wk vs $250K/wk leader gate. Crosses the gate ~W31 at the current slope. Validation in progress: R. Kim (Buyer, Intimates): size-curve review of affected styles · A. Rossi (AQUA Product Development): factory-lot fit audit.
- Actual
W28 · Return rate
- Expected range
median 18%
- Deviation
z +1.9
- Impact
margin-adjusted
BLM · AQUA · Intimates & Hosiery (%), W17 to W28: weekly actual vs event-adjusted expected range; watch at W28: actual 21.4 vs expected 14.4 – 21.6, z +1.9
| Week | Actual | Expected lower | Expected median | Expected upper | Z-score | Events | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W17 | 17.8 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W18 | 18.2 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W19 | 17.6 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W20 | 18 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W21 | 18.3 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W22 | 17.7 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W23 | 18.1 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W24 | 18.4 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W25 | 19.5 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W26 | 20.1 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W27 | 20.8 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | — | — | — |
| W28 | 21.4 | 14.4 | 18 | 21.6 | 1.9 | — | watch |
What explains it
Fit issue on the new spring cut (AQ-1147)
Fit share of return reasons moved 41% → 58% while other reasons held flat; returns concentrate in the 34B/34C size bands at ≈2.3× the family average, the signature of a fit-block change, not a taste change. Size-guide engagement +45% on affected PDPs corroborates.
- Cannot rule out
Post-event returns lag
Returns lag after events is a known watchout; some of the drift may be spring-promo purchases returning late.
- Rejected
Carrier/logistics damage spike
Rejected: damage-coded reasons are flat WoW across all lanes.