Women's RTW digital demand below event-adjusted range
W28 digital demand for Women's RTW landed 7.5K orders below the event-adjusted expected range, even after crediting Summer Glow.
BLM · Women's Apparel (RTW) · Digital · W28
Signal workflow
- Detected
- Assigned
- Investigating
- Insight
- Decision
- Measuring
- Closed
- Mon Jul 06 · 07:41 ETDetectedDetection run ·
- Actual
W28 · Digital demand orders
- Expected range
median 111.5K orders
- Deviation
z -4.1
- Impact
margin-adjusted
BLM · Women's Apparel (RTW) · Digital (K orders), W17 to W28: weekly actual vs event-adjusted expected range; breach at W28: actual 91.2 vs expected 98.7 – 125.1, z -4.1
| Week | Actual | Expected lower | Expected median | Expected upper | Z-score | Events | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W17 | 99.8 | 94 | 100 | 106 | — | — | — |
| W18 | 102.3 | 94 | 100 | 106 | — | — | — |
| W19 | 100.6 | 94 | 100 | 106 | — | — | — |
| W20 | 98.9 | 94 | 100 | 106 | — | — | — |
| W21 | 101.5 | 94 | 100 | 106 | — | — | — |
| W22 | 103.2 | 94 | 100 | 106 | — | — | — |
| W23 | 100.8 | 94 | 100 | 106 | — | — | — |
| W24 | 99.6 | 94 | 100 | 106 | — | — | — |
| W25 | 102.1 | 94 | 100 | 106 | — | — | — |
| W26 | 96.9 | 94 | 100 | 106 | -1.2 | Site release R-1142 (checkout bundle) | — |
| W27 | 99.6 | 98.7 | 111.5 | 125.1 | -2.4 | Summer Glow · Take 20–25% Off · The Carousel · “Surfer Chic” rotation · WBR published · W27 · Carrier network disruption · NE lanes | — |
| W28 | 91.2 | 98.7 | 111.5 | 125.1 | -4.1 | Summer Glow · Take 20–25% Off · Loyallist $25 reward per $100 · WBR published · W28 | breach |
Where it concentrates
Residual decomposition
Exact-sum decomposition: bars are shares of the -20.3 K orders residual.
Funnel · W28 vs W27
Traffic arrived; the loss is inside the checkout step.
- 01Sessions+9% WoW
- 02PDP views+7% WoW
- 03Add-to-bag+5% WoW
- 04Checkout starts−1.2% WoW
- 05Mobile checkout completionAbandonment concentrates at the delivery-option step · desktop −1.2pp (mildly affected)−7.8pp (87.4% → 79.6%)
What explains it
Delivery-promise degradation at NE checkout (carrier disruption)
NE ship-to-home promise display slipped 2-day → 5–7 days from mid-W27, matching a regional carrier network disruption, an external operational cause. Abandonment concentrates at the delivery-option step, and NE pickup share rose +3.1pp while NE ship-to-home fell: shoppers who could switch fulfillment did; those who couldn't, abandoned.
- Rejected
Site release R-1142 (W26) · evaluated and cleared
Rejected with evidence: the release is platform-wide but the impact is region-specific; timing misaligns (shipped W26, breach onset mid-W27 exactly at the promise slip); desktop shows only a mild promise-sensitivity effect, not a defect signature.
- Cannot rule out
Stacked Loyallist offer friction
Loyallist $25-per-$100 reward stacked on Summer Glow in W28; overlapping promo mechanics are a known watchout; held at low weight because offer friction would not be region-specific.
- Rejected
Northeast weather suppressing demand
Rejected: sessions and PDP views are up 9% and 7%; traffic arrived. The loss is inside the funnel, not upstream of it. The class cut is diffuse (dresses −19%, denim −17%, tops −18%), a fulfillment/funnel signature, not a merchandise one.
How this updates last week's read
Prior belief · WBR W27
RTW digital softness noted; monitor: promo noise expected during Summer Glow.
Stance on record: monitor · promo noise expected
What this week's evidence changes
Today's evidence updates that prior: the miss survives event adjustment and concentrates at the checkout delivery-promise step: funnel-specific, not promo noise.